Employment
TPA provides projections of employment at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA).
The GMA includes the Sydney Greater Capital City Statistical Area (GCCSA), the Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven SA4, Illawarra SA4, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie SA4, and Lower Hunter, Port Stephens, and Maitland SA3s, as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The 2016 release of TPA employment projections is provided at Travel Zone by industry. The model has 34 industry categories, equivalent to the ABS 1-digit Australia and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) codes with the exception of Manufacturing which is at 2-digit level. The projections in this release, TZP 2016 v1.51 are five-yearly, from 2016 to 2056. The visualisations are presented in 2011 Travel Zone geography.
The main input to the employment projections is the Census Journey to Work (JTW) employment data, the only official source of historical employment data at the small area level. These data were factored up to address the undercount in the Census figures which is estimated to be over 10%. The projections were also validated using the ABS' Labour Force Survey data.
The TPA employment TZ projections model produces the employment projections using a 'top-down' approach. It produces the projections at the GMA level, and then distributes these down to the regional and sub-regional level, and finally, to the Travel Zone level. Some adjustments are applied in order to incorporate known major developments and future plans.
For additional details on Travel Zones, please visit the Open Data Hub.
Notes
When modelling a potential future land use distribution, it should be understood there is no one single future or a single way to interpret the available data. TPA’s TZ projections seek to represent the most likely future trends for the GMA, based on current data, trends and an understanding of policy/structural changes as at November 2016. They use a “statistical, population-based time series” modelling approach. They provide “fit for purpose” projections that are designed to assist with transport planning, modelling, and the development of business cases for major transport infrastructure and other strategic purposes.
It should be noted that projections for the distant future are significantly more difficult to predict with certainty. Transport's TZ projections between 2021 and 2036 are supported by various forecasts and strategic plans from both government and non-government organisations. For projections beyond 2036, there is limited relevant input data available and the model has developed projections in line with identified trends.
Sources
2016 Census data (Population growth, employment by industry/region/place, Journey to work, labour force survey)
2016 NSW population projections data – NSW Department of Planning & Environment
For a detailed list of sources, please see the Travel Zone Projections 2016 v1.51 - Technical Guide (PDF, 7.39 MB).
Visualisations
TPA provides projections of employment at Travel Zone level for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA).
Please refer to Visualisation User Guide (PDF, 207.1 KB) for help.