Population
TPA provides projections of population and dwellings at the small area (Travel Zone or TZ) level for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA).
The GMA includes the Sydney Greater Capital City Statistical Area (GCCSA), the Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven SA4, Illawarra SA4, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie SA4, and Lower Hunter, Port Stephens, and Maitland SA3s, as defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The Population and Dwellings TZ projections cover the following variables:
- Population (Estimated Resident Population) by 5-year Age categories by Sex
- Occupied Private Dwellings (Households)
- Population in Occupied Private Dwellings
- Population in Non-Private Dwellings
The projections in this release, TZP2016 v1.51, are five-yearly, from 2016 to 2056. The visualisations are presented in 2011 Travel Zone geography.
The main inputs to the population projections are the Department of Planning and Environment's (DP&E) 2016 NSW population, household and dwelling projections (main series) and ABS' 2016 Census data on population and housing. Adjustments were made to incorporate known major developments and future plans as at November 2016.
The above Travel Zone Projections for Population and Dwellings are available for download in both Excel and CSV formats from the Open Data Hub.
For additional details on Travel Zones or to download the relevant files, please visit the Open Data Hub.
Notes
When modelling a potential future land use distribution, it should be understood there is no one single future or a single way to interpret the available data. TPA’s TZ projections seek to represent the most likely future trends for the GMA, based on current data, trends and an understanding of policy/structural changes as at November 2016. They use a “statistical, population-based time series” modelling approach. They provide “fit for purpose” projections that are designed to assist with transport planning, modelling, and the development of business cases for major transport infrastructure and other strategic purposes.
It should be noted that projections for the distant future are significantly more difficult to predict with certainty. Transport's TZ projections between 2021 and 2036 are supported by various forecasts and strategic plans from both government and non-government organisations. For projections beyond 2036, there is limited relevant input data available and the model has developed projections in line with identified trends.
Sources
2016 NSW population projections data – NSW Department of Planning & Environment
2016 NSW household and dwelling projections data – NSW Department of Planning & Environment
2016 Census data (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by meshblock, historical household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence) Australian Bureau of Statistics
For a detailed list of sources, please see the Travel Zone Projections 2016 v1.51 - Technical Guide. (PDF, 7.39 MB)
Visualisations
TPA provides projections of population in occupied private dwellings* at Travel Zone level for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area (GMA).
Please refer to Visualisation User Guide (PDF, 207.1 KB) for help.