Travel Zone Projections 2024 (TZP24)

Transport for NSW (TfNSW) produces Travel Zone Projections (TZP) for population, dwellings, workforce and employment for NSW Travel Zones, as an input into a variety of travel models including the Strategic Travel Model (STM).

At a high level, the data covers three dimensions:

• Time Period: Annually from 2021 to 2031, and 5-yearly from 2031 to 2066
• Geography: 4,236 travel zones in Travel Zone 2021 (TZ21) geography across NSW
• Variables: 60+ variables covering population, dwellings, workforce and employment.

The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions.

The projections seek to represent a likely urban and regional future based on current data, trends, and an understanding of policy/structural changes that may impact the future. The TZP are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

Travel Zone Projections 2024 (TZP24) were released in January 2025 and use key input data from the Census (ABS 2021), 2024 NSW Population Projections (released in November 2024) and Housing Supply Forecasts 2023 prepared by Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure (DPHI), as well as NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR) by NSW Treasury, Employment Projections by Industry by Victoria University (2024 VUEP) and custom-built Future Employment Developments Database (FEDD).

TZP24 dataset is based on best available data, as at early -2024. The projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.

For a summary of the TZP24 Projections method please refer to the TZP24 Summary Factsheet (PDF, 972.61 KB).

For more information on FEDD please refer to the FEDD 2024 Factsheet (PDF, 275.36 KB).

For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP24 Technical Guide (PDF, 4.57 MB).

The TZP24 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:

• Estimated Resident Population
• Structural Private Dwellings
• Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories by Sex
• Population in Non-Private Dwellings

These projections are based on the Travel Zone 2021 geography. They are presented annually from 2021-2031 and 5-yearly periods 2031-2066 with a base year of 2021 by Travel Zone.

Please note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024. The projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.

To view the data

View the data in the TZP24 Travel Zone Map Explorer and TZP24 Dashboard.

Download in Excel or CSV format from the TfNSW Open Data Hub. The Excel version contains additional notes, cautions and summary tables.

Key Data Inputs used in TZP24:

• 2024 NSW Population and Dwelling Projections Data - NSW Department of Planning & Environment
• 2021 Census data - Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, historical household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence

TZP24 Workforce Projections cover persons who reside in Occupied Private Dwellings, aged 15 years and over, and are presented by their usual place of residence.

The following Workforce variables are presented in TZP24:

• Employed People, 15 years and over
• Unemployed People, 15 years and over
• People not in the workforce, 15 years and over.

These projections are based on the Travel Zone 2021 geography. They are presented annually from 2021-2031 and 5-yearly periods 2031-2066 with a base year of 2021 by Travel Zone.

Please note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024, the projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.

To view the data

View the data in the TZP24 Dashboard

Download in Excel or CSV format from the TfNSW Open Data Hub. The Excel version contains additional notes, cautions and summary tables.

Key Data Inputs used:

• TZP24 Population and Dwellings projections
• Workforce participation rates - NSW Treasury
• Historical labour force data - ABS Labour Force Survey.

TZP24 Employment Projections are for employed persons by place of work. They are provided by Industry using two breakdowns:

• 33 industry categories (equivalent to the 1-digit Australia and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) codes from the ABS with the exception of Manufacturing which is at 2-digit level).
• 4 Broad Industry Categories (groupings of the above)

These projections are based on the Travel Zone 2021 geography. They are presented annually from 2021-2031 and 5-yearly periods 2031-2066 with a base year of 2021 by Travel Zone.

Please note, TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024. The projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.

To view the data

View the data in the TZP24 Travel Zone Map Explorer and TZP24 Dashboard.

Download in Excel or CSV format from the TfNSW Open Data Hub. The Excel version contains additional notes, cautions, a key to the Broad Industry Categories and summary tables.

Key Data Inputs used:

• TZP24 Workforce Projections
• Census 2021 Place of Work by Destination Zone - ABS
• NSW Intergenerational report (IGR) - NSW Treasury
• Employment by industry projections - Victoria University
• Future Employment Development Database (FEDD) - custom dataset compiled by TfNSW between August 2023 and February 2024 that presents the number of jobs expected from major projects based on publicly available documents. For more detail about the FEDD please refer to the FEDD 2024 Factsheet (PDF, 275.36 KB).

The TZP24 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government’s Common Planning Assumptions for population and employment projections.

The TZP are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

• TZP24 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns
• The TZP24 outputs represent a point in time set of projections
• The projections are not government targets
• Travel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results
• As a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only
• More specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub
• TZP24 is based on best available data as at early 2024. The projections incorporate results of the National Census conducted by the ABS in August 2021.
• More information about TZP24 can be found in the TZP24 Summary Factsheet (PDF, 972.61 KB).

• View TZP24 data on the Open Data Hub